Spanish Election Betting

Spain will hold a general election on July 23, 2023, to elect the 15th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 of 266 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs. The election is expected to be a close contest between the left-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the right-wing bloc headed by Alberto Nunez Feijoo.

In this article, we will look at the background, the main parties, the opinion polls, the betting odds and some tips for betting on the Spanish election.

Background

The current government was formed after the November 2019 election, which resulted in a hung parliament. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos, the first such nationwide left-wing coalition since the times of the Second Spanish Republic, managed to secure a confidence vote with the support of several regional parties.

However, the government’s tenure was quickly overshadowed by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, along with its political and economic consequences. These included the severe global recession resulting from the extensive lockdown measures implemented to curb the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as the economic impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On the right side of the political spectrum, the People’s Party (PP) underwent a leadership change in February 2022, following an internal push by Galician and Madrilenian presidents, Alberto Nunez Feijoo and Isabel Diaz Ayuso, to remove party leader Pablo Casado. Since Feijoo’s accession, PP has led opinion polls and finished first in the regional and local elections of 28 May 2023. Far-right Vox has been open to support the PP in a hung parliament in exchange for government participation and programatic concessions. The liberal Citizens party, once a leading force but having lost most of its support since 2019, decided not to run in this election, focusing its efforts on the 2024 European Parliament election instead.

Despite speculation about an early election , Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez consistently expressed his intention to complete the legislature as scheduled in 2023. He had initially set a tentative election date for December 2023, near the conclusion of the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union. However, the poor results of the left-wing bloc in the May regional and local elections, with losses to the PP and Vox in all but three regions, led to a surprise early dissolution of the Cortes in what was described as a gamble by Sanchez to wrong-foot the opposition.

Main Parties

The main parties competing in this election are:

Other parties include:

• Together for Catalonia (JxCat), a Catalan separatist party with nine seats in Congress and six in Senate
• Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), a Basque regionalist party with six seats in Congress and nine in Senate
• Citizens (Cs), a liberal party with six seats in Congress and four in Senate
• More Country (MP), a progressive party with two seats in Congress and one in Senate
• Bildu, a Basque pro-independence party with four seats in Congress and zero in Senate
• Canary Coalition (CC), a Canarian nationalist party with two seats in Congress and one in Senate
• Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC), a Cantabrian regionalist party with one seat in Congress and zero in Senate
• Teruel Exists (TE), a rural platform with one seat in Congress and zero in Senate

Opinion Polls

The opinion polls have shown a consistent lead for the PP over the PSOE since early 2022. The latest polls, conducted in June 2023, give the following results:

The average of these polls gives the following seat projection for the Congress of Deputies:

The average of these polls gives the following seat projection for the Senate:

Betting Odds

The betting odds for the Spanish election reflect the opinion polls, with the PP being the clear favourite to win the most seats and form the next government. According to the latest odds from Gambling.com, Feijoo is 3/10 to be the next prime minister, while Sanchez is 5/4. This implies a 73.3% chance for Feijoo and a 44.4% chance for Sanchez.

The odds for the most seats are also in favour of the PP, with 1/5 compared to 7/2 for the PSOE. This implies an 83.3% chance for the PP and a 22.2% chance for the PSOE.

The odds for the majority are more balanced, with 11/10 for no overall majority, 6/4 for a PP majority and 9/2 for a PSOE majority. This implies a 47.6% chance for no overall majority, a 40% chance for a PP majority and a 18.2% chance for a PSOE majority.

The odds for the coalition are also interesting, with 6/4 for a PP-Vox coalition, 9/4 for a PSOE-Podemos Sumar coalition, 5/1 for a PP-ERC coalition and 8/1 for a PSOE-ERC coalition. This implies a 40% chance for a PP-Vox coalition, a 30.8% chance for a PSOE-Podemos Sumar coalition, a 16.7% chance for a PP-ERC coalition and a 11.1% chance for a PSOE-ERC coalition.

Tips for Betting

Betting on the Spanish election can be exciting and profitable, but also risky and unpredictable. Here are some tips to help you make informed and smart bets:

• Do your research: Before placing any bets, make sure you are familiar with the political landscape, the main parties, the opinion polls, the electoral system and the historical trends of Spanish elections. You can use reliable sources such as Wikipedia, news outlets, polling firms and betting sites to get accurate and updated information.

• Compare the odds: Different betting sites may offer different odds for the same event or outcome, so it is important to shop around and compare the odds to find the best value. You can use tools such as Oddschecker or Gambling.com to compare the odds from various bookmakers and see where you can get the highest returns.

• Look for value: Value is when the odds are higher than the implied probability of an outcome. For example, if you think that Sanchez has a 50% chance of being the next prime minister, but his odds are 5/4, then you have found value because his implied probability is only 44.4%. Value bets can increase your profits in the long run, but they also involve more risk and uncertainty.

• Consider alternative markets: Besides betting on the most common markets such as most seats, majority and prime minister, you can also explore other markets that may offer more opportunities or better odds. For example, you can bet on the number of seats that each party will win, the vote share that each party will get, the turnout of voters, or even specific outcomes in certain regions or constituencies.

• Manage your bankroll: As with any form of gambling, you should always bet responsibly and within your means. You should set a budget for your betting and stick to it, never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase your losses or get carried away by your emotions. You should also diversify your bets and avoid putting all your money on one outcome or market.

Conclusion

The Spanish election of 2023 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and competitive in recent history. The outcome will have significant implications not only for Spain but also for Europe and the world. Betting on the election can be a fun and rewarding way to participate in this historic event, but it also requires careful analysis and strategy. By following our guide and tips, you can increase your chances of making successful bets and enjoying this thrilling political spectacle.

FAQ

Here are some frequently asked questions about Spanish election betting:

• Q: When is the Spanish election?
• A: The Spanish election will take place on July 23, 2023.
• Q: How does the Spanish electoral system work?
• A: The Spanish electoral system is based on proportional representation with closed party lists. The Congress of Deputies is elected using the D’Hondt method in 52 multi-member constituencies corresponding to Spain’s provinces (plus Ceuta and Melilla). The Senate is elected using an open list system in four-member constituencies corresponding to Spain’s mainland provinces (plus three members each from Ceuta and Melilla), plus additional senators appointed by regional legislatures.
• Q: How many seats are needed for a majority?
• A: A majority in the Congress of Deputies requires 176 seats out of 350. A majority in the Senate requires 134 seats out of 266.
• Q: Who are the main parties and leaders?
• A: The main parties and leaders are:
  • PSOE: Pedro Sanchez, social democracy
  • PP: Alberto Nunez Feijoo, conservatism
  • Vox: Santiago Abascal, nationalism
  • Podemos Sumar: Ione Belarra & Yolanda Diaz, democratic socialism
  • ERC: Gabriel Rufian, Catalan republicanism
• Q: What are the main issues and themes?
• A: The main issues and themes are:
  • The economic and social recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
  • The territorial and constitutional crisis stemming from the Catalan independence movement and the rise of regionalism
  • The polarization and fragmentation of the political landscape and the challenges of coalition building
  • The role of Spain in the European Union and the international arena
• Q: Where can I bet on the Spanish election?
• A: You can bet on the Spanish election at various online betting sites that offer politics betting markets. Some of the most popular ones are:
  • Gambling.com
  • Betfair
  • Paddy Power
  • Ladbrokes
  • William Hill