Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction and Betting Tips

The Southern Methodist Mustangs (SMU) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are set to clash in an exciting ACC matchup on Wednesday, February 19, 2025, at 7:00 PM ET. The game will take place at Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, Indiana, and promises to be a thrilling contest as both teams look to improve their standings in the conference. This article provides a comprehensive preview, prediction, and betting tips for the game, along with key insights into the teams’ performances, odds, and trends.

Game Preview

Team Overview

Southern Methodist Mustangs (19-6, 10-4 ACC)
The SMU Mustangs have been one of the standout teams in the ACC this season, boasting a strong 19-6 record and a 10-4 conference mark. They are currently ranked 24th in the nation in scoring, averaging 82.1 points per game, and have been particularly effective on the road, winning four straight away games. However, they are coming off a disappointing 77-66 home loss to Wake Forest, which snapped their five-game winning streak. The Mustangs will be looking to bounce back and secure their 11th conference win in this matchup.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-14, 5-9 ACC)
The Fighting Irish have struggled this season, with an 11-14 overall record and a 5-9 mark in the ACC. They are currently 13th in the conference standings and are in desperate need of a win to keep their slim postseason hopes alive. Notre Dame is coming off a 75-60 loss to Louisville, their fourth defeat in the last five games. Despite their struggles, the Fighting Irish have shown resilience at home, where they have an 8-4 record this season.

Key Stats and Trends

Offensive and Defensive Comparison

• SMU: The Mustangs are one of the most potent offensive teams in the ACC, ranking 24th nationally with 82.1 points per game. They shoot 47.8% from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc. Defensively, they allow 71.4 points per game, ranking 10th in the conference.
• Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish average 73.2 points per game, ranking 13th in the ACC. They shoot 45.5% from the field and 36.5% from three-point range. Defensively, they allow 70.9 points per game, slightly better than SMU.

Recent Form

• SMU: The Mustangs are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have been dominant on the road, with a 5-1 record in ACC away games. However, their recent loss to Wake Forest exposed some vulnerabilities, particularly in their three-point shooting (8-35) and free-throw accuracy (14-22).
• Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are 1-4 in their last five games and have struggled to cover the spread, going 0-5 ATS in their last five matchups. Their offense has been inconsistent, scoring 63 points or fewer in four of their last five games.

Betting Odds and Insights

Spread and Moneyline

• Spread: SMU is a 1.5-point favorite, reflecting the close nature of this matchup. The Mustangs have a 13-12-0 ATS record this season, while Notre Dame is 11-13-1 ATS.
• Moneyline: SMU is listed at -140, implying a 57.6% chance of winning, while Notre Dame is at +115, giving them a 46.7% chance.

Over/Under

• The total points line is set at 143.5. SMU’s games have gone over this total in 18 of 25 games this season, while Notre Dame’s games have gone over in 11 of 24.

Prediction

Who Will Win?

Despite their recent loss, SMU has been the more consistent team this season and holds a significant edge in offensive firepower. Notre Dame’s struggles, particularly on offense, make it difficult to see them keeping up with the Mustangs. However, the Fighting Irish have a strong home record and could keep the game close if they can control the pace and limit SMU’s three-point shooting.

Final Score Prediction: SMU 76, Notre Dame 72.

Betting Tips

1. Spread: Take SMU -1.5. The Mustangs have covered the spread in three of their last five games and have been strong on the road.
2. Over/Under: Lean towards the under. Both teams have seen the under hit in four of their last five games, and Notre Dame’s slow pace could limit scoring.
3. Moneyline: SMU is the safer bet, given their superior record and offensive efficiency.

Key Players to Watch

SMU Mustangs

• Kevin Miller: The junior guard averages 13.4 points and 5.7 assists per game. His playmaking will be crucial for SMU’s offense.
• Matt Cross: The forward is a double-double threat, averaging 11.9 points and 8.2 rebounds per game.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• Markus Burton: The sophomore guard is Notre Dame’s leading scorer, averaging 21.3 points per game. He will need a big performance to keep the Irish competitive.
• Tae Davis: The junior guard adds 15.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, providing a secondary scoring option.

Conclusion

The SMU Mustangs vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish matchup is shaping up to be a closely contested game, with SMU holding a slight edge due to their superior offense and recent form. However, Notre Dame’s home-court advantage and defensive capabilities could make this a nail-biter. For bettors, SMU -1.5 and the under are the recommended plays. Tune in to the ACC Network at 7:00 PM ET to catch all the action live!