North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Prediction and Betting Tips

Posted on February 19, 2025 by author in Betting

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The rivalry between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the North Carolina Tar Heels is one of the most anticipated matchups in college basketball. On Wednesday, February 19, 2025, these two teams will clash at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC. With the Tar Heels looking to solidify their position in the ACC and the Wolfpack aiming to snap an eight-game road losing streak, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter. Below, we dive into the prediction, betting tips, and odds for this showdown.

Game Overview

Date: Wednesday, February 19, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
TV Channel: ESPN
Live Stream: Fubo

The Tar Heels enter this game with a 15-11 record (8-6 ACC), while the Wolfpack are struggling at 10-15 (3-11 ACC). North Carolina is a 10.5-point favorite, and the over/under is set at 146.5 points.

Team Analysis

North Carolina Tar Heels

The Tar Heels have been inconsistent this season but remain a formidable opponent, especially at home. They are averaging 80.3 points per game (43rd in the nation) and have a strong offensive presence led by RJ Davis, who is averaging 17.3 points per game.

North Carolina’s defense, however, has been a concern, allowing 76.8 points per game (308th in the nation). Despite this, they have a solid home record, winning 10 of 14 games at the Dean E. Smith Center.

Key Players:

RJ Davis: 17.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.8 APG
Elliot Cadeau: 10.3 PPG, 6.0 APG
Seth Trimble: 12.0 PPG, 1.5 SPG

NC State Wolfpack

The Wolfpack are coming off a 70-62 win against Boston College, snapping a nine-game losing streak. However, their road record is abysmal, with 0 wins in 8 away games.

NC State’s offense has struggled, averaging just 69.5 points per game (295th in the nation), while their defense has been relatively solid, allowing 68.7 points per game (80th in the nation).

Key Players:

Marcus Hill: 12.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG
Jayden Taylor: 11.8 PPG, 1.6 SPG
Dontrez Styles: 9.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG

Head-to-Head History

The Tar Heels have dominated this rivalry recently, winning 7 of the last 10 matchups. In their most recent meeting on January 11, 2025, North Carolina edged out a 63-61 victory.

Betting Trends and Insights

Spread and Moneyline

Spread: North Carolina -10.5
Moneyline: North Carolina -613, NC State +440

The Tar Heels have been shaky against the spread this season, with a 7-19-0 ATS record. However, they have covered the spread in 4 of 9 games when favored by 10.5 points or more.

NC State, on the other hand, has struggled as an underdog, failing to win any of their 12 games in that role this season.

Over/Under

Total Points: 146.5

North Carolina’s games have averaged 157.1 points, while NC State’s games have averaged 138.2 points. The over has hit in 19 of 26 Tar Heels games and 8 of 25 Wolfpack games.

Prediction

Final Score Prediction

North Carolina 79, NC State 68

The Tar Heels’ offensive firepower and home-court advantage should be enough to secure a comfortable win. While the Wolfpack’s defense could keep the game close early, North Carolina’s depth and scoring ability will likely pull them away in the second half.

Betting Tips

Spread: Take North Carolina -10.5. The Tar Heels have the edge in talent and home-court advantage.
Over/Under: Lean towards the Over 146.5. North Carolina’s fast-paced offense and NC State’s tendency to allow high-scoring games make this a solid pick.
Player Props: Consider betting on RJ Davis to score Over 16.5 points. He has been consistent, scoring 16 or more points in eight straight games.

Key Factors to Watch

NC State’s Road Struggles: The Wolfpack are winless on the road this season, which could be a significant factor in this matchup.
North Carolina’s Rebounding: The Tar Heels average 33.5 rebounds per game (100th in the nation), which could give them second-chance opportunities against a weaker NC State rebounding team.
Turnovers: NC State forces 12.6 turnovers per game, which could disrupt North Carolina’s rhythm if they capitalize on these opportunities.

Conclusion

The North Carolina Tar Heels are poised to extend their dominance over the NC State Wolfpack in this ACC showdown. With a strong offense and home-court advantage, North Carolina should cover the spread and secure a double-digit victory. For bettors, focusing on the spread and over/under markets offers the best value.

Tune in to ESPN on Wednesday, February 19, 2025, at 7:00 PM ET to catch all the action live from the Dean E. Smith Center.