The UFC light heavyweight division is heating up, and one of the most anticipated matchups of 2025 is just around the corner: Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg. Scheduled for March 22, 2025, at UFC Fight Night in London, this co-main event pits a former champion against a rising star. Whether you’re a die-hard MMA fan or someone looking to place a smart bet, this clash offers plenty of intrigue. In this article, we’ll dive deep into predictions, betting tips, detailed analysis, current betting odds, and key stats to help you understand what’s at stake. Let’s break it all down and see who’s likely to come out on top!
Jan Blachowicz, a name synonymous with resilience and “Polish Power,” steps into the Octagon against Carlos Ulberg, a dynamic striker from New Zealand’s City Kickboxing camp. Set to take place at the O2 Arena, this light heavyweight bout is part of a stacked UFC Fight Night card headlined by Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady. For Blachowicz, it’s a chance to reassert his dominance in a division he once ruled. For Ulberg, it’s the biggest test of his career and a potential springboard into title contention.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Blachowicz, at 42, is looking to prove he’s still a top-tier fighter after a mixed run in recent years. Ulberg, riding a seven-fight win streak, aims to cement his status as a legitimate contender. With betting odds favoring Ulberg slightly, this fight promises fireworks—and plenty of opportunities for savvy bettors.
Jan Blachowicz: The Veteran Warrior
Who Is Jan Blachowicz?
Jan Blachowicz is a legend in the light heavyweight division. Born in Poland, he’s been a professional fighter since 2007 and joined the UFC in 2014. After a rocky start (losing four of his first six UFC fights), Blachowicz turned things around with a remarkable run, eventually capturing the vacant light heavyweight title in 2020 with a TKO win over Dominick Reyes. He defended the belt against Israel Adesanya in 2021, handing “The Last Stylebender” his first career loss.
Blachowicz’s career is a testament to perseverance. At 41 during his last fight, he’s defied age with his durability and knockout power. However, his recent record—1-1-1 since losing the title to Glover Teixeira in 2021—has some questioning whether he’s past his prime.
Blachowicz’s Fighting Style and Strengths
Blachowicz is a well-rounded fighter with a knack for finishing fights. His “Polish Power” isn’t just a catchy nickname—it’s a real threat. He lands 4.07 significant strikes per minute with a 50% accuracy rate, according to UFC stats. His left body kick is a signature weapon, often setting up devastating punches.
Defensively, Blachowicz is tough as nails. He absorbs 3.47 strikes per minute and boasts a 54% striking defense. On the ground, he’s no slouch either, with a 53% takedown defense and the ability to scramble back to his feet. His experience against elite competition—like Adesanya, Alex Pereira, and Magomed Ankalaev—gives him an edge in high-pressure situations.
Blachowicz’s last win came in May 2022, a TKO over Aleksandar Rakic due to Rakic’s knee injury. Since then, he fought Ankalaev to a split draw in a vacant title fight (December 2022) and lost a razor-close split decision to Alex Pereira (July 2023). At 29-10-1 overall and 12-7-1 in the UFC, he’s still ranked No. 3 in the division, but he needs a statement win to stay in the title picture.
Carlos Ulberg: The Rising Star
Who Is Carlos Ulberg?
Carlos Ulberg is the new blood in the light heavyweight division. Hailing from Auckland, New Zealand, he trains with the renowned City Kickboxing team alongside names like Israel Adesanya and Dan Hooker. Before MMA, Ulberg was a standout in kickboxing (19-2) and boxing (11-0), bringing a wealth of striking experience to the cage. Since joining the UFC in 2021, he’s compiled a 7-1 record, with his only loss coming in his debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu.
At 34, Ulberg is hitting his prime. His seven-fight win streak includes notable victories over Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes, propelling him to No. 6 in the rankings. This fight against Blachowicz is his chance to break into the elite tier.
Ulberg’s Fighting Style and Strengths
Ulberg is a striker’s striker. He lands an incredible 7.20 significant strikes per minute—the highest in the division—with 54% accuracy. His kickboxing background shines through with crisp combinations and a knack for picking opponents apart at range. He’s also got power, with five of his seven UFC wins coming by knockout or TKO.
Defensively, Ulberg is solid, absorbing just 2.34 strikes per minute and boasting an 83% takedown defense. While his grappling isn’t his forte (0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes), he’s shown improvement, relying on his athleticism to avoid prolonged ground battles. His cardio and pace could be key against the slower-starting Blachowicz.
Ulberg’s momentum is undeniable. His unanimous decision win over Oezdemir in November 2024 showcased his ability to outstrike a seasoned veteran. Before that, he knocked out Reyes in just over two minutes (May 2024) and finished Alonzo Menifield in 12 seconds (May 2023). At 12-1 overall, Ulberg is peaking at the perfect time.
Striking Battle
This fight could turn into a striking clinic. Ulberg’s speed and volume (7.20 strikes per minute) give him an edge on paper, but Blachowicz’s power and precision (50% accuracy) make him dangerous. Ulberg will likely try to keep it at range, using his kicks and movement to frustrate Blachowicz. However, if Blachowicz lands that left body kick or a clean overhand right, Ulberg could be in trouble.
Grappling and Ground Game
Blachowicz has the advantage here. While Ulberg’s takedown defense is strong, Blachowicz’s experience on the mat could allow him to drag the fight down and test Ulberg’s unproven grappling. Ulberg will want to avoid this scenario at all costs, as his path to victory lies in keeping it standing.
Experience Factor
Blachowicz has faced the who’s who of the division—Adesanya, Pereira, Ankalaev, Teixeira, Reyes—and rarely gets rattled. Ulberg, while talented, hasn’t fought anyone of Blachowicz’s caliber yet. The bright lights of a co-main event in London could play a role.
| Stat | Jan Blachowicz | Carlos Ulberg |
| Record | 29-10-1 | 12-1 |
| UFC Record | 12-7-1 | 7-1 |
| Significant Strikes/Min | 4.07 | 7.20 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50% | 54% |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 3.47 | 2.34 |
| Takedown Defense | 53% | 83% |
| Knockouts/TKOs | 9 (UFC) | 5 (UFC) |
As of mid-March 2025, here’s how the betting odds stack up (sourced from DraftKings and other sportsbooks):
Ulberg opened as a -198 favorite, with Blachowicz at +164, but the line has tightened slightly as fight night approaches. The odds reflect Ulberg’s momentum and striking prowess, but Blachowicz’s pedigree keeps him a live underdog.
Betting Odds Explained
Why Bet on Carlos Ulberg?
Best Bet: Ulberg by decision (+200). He’s gone the distance in his last two fights and may outpoint Blachowicz over three rounds.
Why Bet on Jan Blachowicz?
Best Bet: Blachowicz by KO/TKO (+350). His power is still a threat, and Ulberg’s aggressive style could leave him open.
Prop Bets to Consider
This is a classic veteran vs. prospect matchup. Ulberg’s speed and striking volume give him the edge early, but Blachowicz’s power and experience could turn the tide late. I lean toward Carlos Ulberg winning by unanimous decision, outworking Blachowicz with his pace and movement. However, don’t sleep on Blachowicz—he’s pulled off upsets before, and a single mistake from Ulberg could spell disaster.
Fan Sentiment and Expert Takes
Posts on X reflect the divide. Some fans see Ulberg “piecing up” Blachowicz with his striking, while others back Blachowicz’s durability and “insane power” against top competition. Experts like ESPN’s Jon Anik have suggested the winner could be next in line for a title shot, adding weight to this bout.
How to Watch
Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg is more than just a fight—it’s a clash of eras. Blachowicz represents the old guard, a battle-tested warrior with nothing left to prove but everything to gain. Ulberg is the future, a hungry contender ready to take his place among the elite. Whether you’re betting on the favorite or the underdog, this fight offers value and excitement. Who do you think wins? Drop your prediction in the comments below!
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