Jagiellonia Bialystok vs. Backa Topola Prediction and Betting Tips

Posted on February 19, 2025 by author in Football

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The UEFA Europa Conference League continues to deliver thrilling encounters, and the upcoming match between Jagiellonia Bialystok and FK TSC Backa Topola is no exception. Scheduled for February 21, 2025, at the Chorten Arena in Poland, this second-leg playoff tie promises to be a captivating battle. With Jagiellonia holding a 3-1 advantage from the first leg, the stakes are high for both teams. In this article, we’ll dive into the prediction, betting tips, and odds for this exciting clash, providing you with all the insights you need to make informed decisions.

Match Preview

Jagiellonia Bialystok: Dominant Form and Home Advantage

Jagiellonia Bialystok has been in impressive form recently, both domestically and in Europe. The Polish side currently sits at the top of the Ekstraklasa, tied on points with Lech Poznan, and is aiming for a second consecutive league title. Their recent 3-0 victory against Motor Lublin in the domestic league further highlights their attacking prowess and defensive solidity.

In the first leg of this Conference League tie, Jagiellonia overcame an early scare to secure a 3-1 victory against Backa Topola. Despite conceding first, they equalized quickly and sealed the win with two late goals. This performance showcased their ability to dominate games, with five big chances created and an xG (expected goals) of 2.28.

Jagiellonia’s home record is another key factor. They are unbeaten in their last 11 home matches and have only lost once by a margin of three or more goals in their 14 European fixtures at the Chorten Arena.

Backa Topola: Struggling Form and Away Woes

On the other hand, FK TSC Backa Topola has been struggling to find consistency. The Serbian side is currently 11th in the Serbian Super Liga, with just 28 points from 23 matches. Their recent form is concerning, with four consecutive defeats heading into this match.

In the first leg, Backa Topola took an early lead but failed to capitalize, managing only five shots and an xG of 0.25. Their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed, as they have conceded 11 goals in their last four matches.

Away from home, Backa Topola’s record is even more troubling. They are winless in their last eight away matches in all competitions and have failed to secure a victory in their three Conference League away games.

Head-to-Head Record

The two teams have met only once before, in the first leg of this tie. Jagiellonia Bialystok emerged victorious with a 3-1 win, giving them a significant advantage heading into the second leg.

Team News and Lineups

Jagiellonia Bialystok

Jagiellonia will be without Adrian Dieguez, their key center-back, due to injury. However, Mateusz Skrzypczak and Enzo Ebosse are expected to step in. In midfield, Leon Flach and Jaroslaw Kubicki are likely to start, while Afimico Pululu will lead the attack after scoring five goals in the league phase.

Possible Starting Lineup:
Abramowicz; Wojtuszek, Skrzypczak, Ebosse, Moutinho; Kubicki, Flach; Miki, Imaz, Churlinov; Pululu

Backa Topola

Backa Topola has suffered a significant blow with the injury to Mihajlo Banjac, who is ruled out for the season. Milos Pantovic, their top scorer in the Conference League, is also a doubt. Stefan Mladenovic, a 17-year-old newcomer, may get his first start after scoring on his debut.

Possible Starting Lineup:
Ilic; Dordevic, Degenek, Capan, Radojevic; Mladenovic, Radin, Vulic, Stanic, Mboungou; Lazetic

Prediction

Likely Outcome

Given Jagiellonia’s dominant form, home advantage, and the 3-1 aggregate lead, they are strong favorites to win this match. Backa Topola’s struggles away from home and defensive vulnerabilities further tilt the balance in Jagiellonia’s favor.

Predicted Score: Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Backa Topola (5-2 on aggregate).

Betting Tips and Odds

Best Bets

Jagiellonia to Win: With odds of 1.40 (1win), this is a safe bet given their form and home advantage.
Both Teams to Score: Backa Topola has shown they can score, and Jagiellonia rarely keeps clean sheets. Odds of 1.73 (Melbet) make this an attractive option.
Over 2.5 Goals: Four of Jagiellonia’s last five matches have seen over 2.5 goals, as have four of Backa Topola’s last five. Odds of 1.94 (Unibet) are favorable.

Other Markets

Asian Handicap: Jagiellonia -1.25 at 1.25 (W88).
Half-Time/Full-Time: Jagiellonia/Jagiellonia at 3.25 (Bet365).

Key Statistics

Jagiellonia has won three of their last four matches and scored three or more goals in three of those games.
Backa Topola has lost four consecutive matches and conceded 11 goals in that period.
Both teams have scored in four of Backa Topola’s last five Conference League matches.

Conclusion

The second leg of this Conference League playoff tie is set to be an exciting encounter, with Jagiellonia Bialystok looking to capitalize on their strong form and home advantage. Backa Topola, despite their struggles, will aim to make a fight of it, but the odds are heavily stacked against them.

For bettors, Jagiellonia to win and both teams to score are the standout options, offering a balance of safety and value. As always, remember to gamble responsibly and enjoy the match!