The Premier League clash between Fulham and Liverpool on April 6, 2025, at Craven Cottage promises to be a thrilling encounter as the league-leading Reds face a Fulham side battling for European qualification. This match carries significant weight for both teams – Liverpool looks to maintain their title charge while Fulham aims to upset one of England’s giants on home turf. Our comprehensive analysis dives deep into team form, head-to-head statistics, key player matchups, and expert betting predictions to give you the most informed perspective on this crucial fixture .
Liverpool enters the match as clear favorites, sitting atop the Premier League table with 70 points from 29 matches (21 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss), while Fulham occupies 8th place with 45 points (12 wins, 9 draws, 8 losses) . The Reds boast an impressive +43 goal difference compared to Fulham’s +4, highlighting the gulf in attacking prowess between the sides this season.
Fulham’s Recent Performance
Marco Silva’s Fulham has shown both resilience and inconsistency in recent weeks. After an impressive start to 2025, their form has dipped with three losses in their last five matches across all competitions, conceding eight goals during that period. Their most recent outing was a 2-1 away loss to Arsenal, though they demonstrated they can compete with top-tier opposition.
At Craven Cottage, Fulham has been formidable this season with six wins, five draws, and four losses. They’ve claimed notable scalps at home, defeating Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, and Tottenham Hotspur, proving they can rise to the occasion against quality opponents. However, their defensive vulnerabilities have emerged recently, conceding five goals in their last two matches .
Fulham’s attacking output remains respectable with 44 goals scored in 30 league matches (1.47 per game), led by Raul Jimenez’s 10 goals and Emile Smith Rowe’s 5 goals . Their midfield engine, Sander Berge, and creative fulcrum Andreas Pereira will be crucial in linking play against Liverpool’s high press.
Liverpool’s Title Charge
Liverpool’s campaign under new manager Arne Slot has been nothing short of spectacular. The Reds boast the league’s best record (22-7-1) through 30 games with a staggering +43 goal difference (70 scored, 27 conceded) . Their away form has been particularly impressive – 10 wins and 5 draws without a loss on the road this season.
Mohamed Salah continues to defy age with another phenomenal season – 27 goals and 15 assists in 30 Premier League appearances, outperforming his expected goals (xG) of 22.15 . The Egyptian winger will be the primary threat Fulham must contain, supported by creative forces like Dominik Szoboszlai and Luis Diaz.
Despite their overall dominance, Liverpool has shown some vulnerability recently, winning three and losing two of their last five matches across all competitions. This includes a surprising 2-1 home defeat to Newcastle United in their most recent outing, which might serve as a wake-up call for the title contenders.
Head-to-Head History and Key Statistics
The historical record between these clubs heavily favors Liverpool, who have won 45 of the 78 previous matches, with 20 draws and just 13 Fulham victories. In their last five Premier League encounters, Liverpool has won three with two matches ending in draws .
This season’s reverse fixture at Anfield ended in a thrilling 2-2 draw on December 14, 2024, with Liverpool needing a late Diogo Jota goal to salvage a point. That match was notable for a Liverpool red card in the 17th minute, yet the Reds still managed to post a 2.13-1.22 expected goals (xG) edge despite being a man down.
Key historical trends to consider:
Recent matches have been high-scoring affairs, with 4 of the last 5 seeing over 2.5 goals and all 5 featuring both teams scoring . This suggests we could see an open, attacking game despite Liverpool’s defensive solidity this season.
Tactical Analysis and Key Matchups
Fulham’s Likely Approach
Marco Silva is expected to set up Fulham in a 3-4-2-1 formation, emphasizing defensive solidity while looking to hit Liverpool on the counter. Key to this approach will be:
Antonee Robinson: The left wing-back has been one of Fulham’s standout performers with 10 assists this season while making 78 tackles and 46 interceptions defensively. His duel with Mohamed Salah could decide the match’s outcome.
Midfield Battle: Sander Berge and Andreas Pereira will need to control the tempo against Liverpool’s press. Berge’s physicality and Pereira’s creativity will be crucial in transitioning from defense to attack.
Raul Jimenez: The Mexican striker (10 goals) will lead the line, supported by Emile Smith Rowe and Adama Traore’s pace in behind. Jimenez’s hold-up play and finishing will test Liverpool’s center-backs.
Liverpool’s Expected Game Plan
Arne Slot will likely deploy his familiar 4-2-3-1 system, looking to dominate possession and press Fulham high up the pitch 11. Key tactical elements include:
Mohamed Salah’s Movement: The Egyptian tends to drift inside from the right, creating overloads in central areas. Fulham’s Robinson will need support from his right center-back to handle this threat.
Midfield Control: Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch will look to dictate play from deep, while Szoboszlai connects midfield to attack. Their ability to bypass Fulham’s press will be crucial.
Full-back Overloads: With Trent Alexander-Arnold injured, Conor Bradley or Joe Gomez will provide width on the right, while Andrew Robertson/Kostas Tsimikas attack from left-back. Their crosses could trouble Fulham’s three-center-back system.
Betting Odds and Market Analysis
Current betting odds from major sportsbooks favor Liverpool heavily:
Moneyline (1X2) Odds:
Asian Handicap:
Total Goals:
These odds imply Liverpool has approximately:
Sports Mole’s model gives Liverpool a slightly lower 50.95% win probability, with Fulham at 26.51% and a 22.5% chance of a draw.
Expert Predictions and Betting Tips
Based on our analysis of team form, historical data, and betting markets, here are our recommended bets for Fulham vs. Liverpool:
Best Value Bets
Alternative Bets
Betting Trends and Systems
A historically profitable betting system favors Liverpool in this spot:
Final Prediction and Scoreline
Considering all factors – Liverpool’s superior quality, Fulham’s home resilience but defensive vulnerabilities, and historical trends – we predict:
Fulham 1-3 Liverpool
Fulham will likely score (as they have in 8 of last 10 home games), but Liverpool’s attacking firepower should prove too much. Mohamed Salah to continue his stellar season with a goal contribution, while Liverpool’s midfield control the tempo.
The Reds’ unbeaten away record should continue as they take another step toward the Premier League title, though Fulham will make them work for it at a spirited Craven Cottage.
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