The upcoming clash between the Butler Bulldogs and the Providence Friars in the Big East Tournament is set to be an exciting matchup. Scheduled for March 12, 2025, at Madison Square Garden, this game will determine which team advances to the quarterfinals to face Saint John’s. Let’s dive into a comprehensive analysis, including predictions, betting tips, and key statistics.
Team Overviews
Butler Bulldogs
- Record: 13-18 (6-14 Big East)
- Recent Performance: The Bulldogs are coming off a 74-87 loss to Creighton. They have struggled recently, losing their last four games.
- Key Players: Jahmyl Telfort leads the team with an average of 16.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. Pierre Brooks adds 15.2 points and 5 rebounds per game.
- Offensive Stats: Butler averages 74.4 points per game (160th nationally), with a field goal percentage of 45.8% (121st) and a three-point shooting percentage of 37.1% (40th).
- Defensive Stats: They allow 73.8 points per game (238th nationally), with opponents shooting 43.1% from the field.
Providence Friars
- Record: 12-19 (6-14 Big East)
- Recent Performance: The Friars are coming off a 68-76 loss to Xavier. They have a slightly better recent record, winning six of their last seven day games at Madison Square Garden against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Key Players: Bensley Joseph leads the team with 12.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game. Jayden Pierre contributes 12.5 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game.
- Offensive Stats: Providence averages 71.4 points per game (254th nationally), with a field goal percentage of 44.3% (209th) and a three-point shooting percentage of 36.2% (68th).
- Defensive Stats: They allow 72.4 points per game (197th nationally), with opponents shooting 44.3% from the field.
Head-to-Head Matchup
The Bulldogs and Friars have faced each other twice this season, with each team winning one game. Providence won the first matchup 84-65 on January 8, 2025, while Butler edged out a narrow 82-81 victory on February 8, 2025.
Betting Odds and Tips
Spread and Moneyline
- Spread: Butler -1.5
- Moneyline: Butler -125, Providence +105
- Over/Under: 149.5 points
Betting Insights
- Against the Spread (ATS): Butler has a 14-17-0 record ATS this season, while Providence has a similar 14-17-0 record.
- As Favorites/Underdogs: Butler is 6-6 ATS as favorites, and Providence is 10-8 ATS as underdogs.
- Over/Under Trends: Butler games have gone over the total in 19 of 31 games, while Providence games have gone over in 16 of 31 games.
Key Betting Tips
- Bet on Butler to Cover the Spread: Given their slight edge in recent performance and the fact that they are favored by only 1.5 points, betting on Butler to cover the spread seems reasonable.
- Consider the Under on Total Points: The combined average points per game for both teams is 145.8, which is slightly below the set total of 149.5. This suggests that betting on the under could be a smart move.
- Moneyline Bet on Butler: With a 55.6% implied probability to win, Butler is a safer bet on the moneyline compared to Providence’s 48.8% implied probability.
Statistical Analysis
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
- Butler’s Offensive Efficiency: The Bulldogs rank 160th nationally in points per game and 121st in field goal percentage. Their three-point shooting is a strong point, ranking 40th nationally.
- Providence’s Defensive Efficiency: The Friars allow 72.4 points per game, ranking 197th nationally. They struggle to defend the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot 36.2% from beyond the arc.
Rebounding and Turnovers
- Rebounding: Butler averages 35.2 rebounds per game, while Providence averages 36.5 rebounds per game. This slight edge in rebounding could be crucial in a close game.
- Turnovers: Butler averages 11.4 turnovers per game, while Providence averages 12.2 turnovers per game. Both teams need to minimize turnovers to maximize their scoring opportunities.
Prediction
Given the statistical analysis and recent performance trends, the prediction for this game is a close contest with Butler edging out Providence. The final score prediction is Butler 74, Providence 72.
Conclusion
The Butler Bulldogs vs. Providence Friars matchup promises to be an exciting game with significant implications for both teams. With Butler slightly favored and both teams having similar records against the spread, this game could go either way. Bettors should consider Butler to cover the spread, the under on total points, and a moneyline bet on Butler for the best chances of success.
As always, it’s essential to stay updated with the latest team news and player performances leading up to the game. Happy betting!
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