Australia vs India 5th Test betting odds prediction

The anticipation surrounding the fifth and final Test between Australia and India at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) is palpable. With Australia leading the series 2-1, this match is pivotal for both teams: Australia aims to clinch the series, while India seeks to level it. This article delves into the betting odds, team news, pitch conditions, and expert predictions for this decisive encounter.

Betting Odds and Predictions

As of January 1, 2025, leading sportsbooks have released the following odds for the fifth Test:

• Australia: 1.61
• Draw: 10.00
• India: 2.87

These odds suggest that Australia is favored to win, with a draw considered unlikely.

Cricket analyst Ed Hawkins notes that the SCG pitch often favors batsmen in the early stages, with teams frequently posting substantial first-innings totals. He suggests that if India bats first, they could leverage the conditions to their advantage, making them a value bet at 3.3 odds.

Team News and Key Players

Australia:

• Mitchell Starc is nursing a back injury, making his participation doubtful. Sean Abbott or Jhye Richardson may replace him, with Abbott’s batting prowess potentially giving him the edge.
• Mitchell Marsh has underperformed, accumulating only 73 runs at an average of 10 and taking three wickets at an average of 46. Beau Webster is a probable replacement.
• Sam Konstas, who debuted recently, is expected to retain his spot after an encouraging performance.

India:

• Rishabh Pant faced criticism for his aggressive shot selection in Melbourne. There’s speculation that Shubman Gill might replace him to bolster the batting lineup, with KL Rahul assuming wicketkeeping duties.
• Washington Sundar is anticipated to play a significant role, especially in the absence of veteran spinner Ravichandran Ashwin, who retired mid-series.

Pitch Report

The SCG is traditionally known for being batsman-friendly in the initial days, with the pitch offering turn as the match progresses. Historical data indicates that teams batting first have often posted totals exceeding 400 runs. For instance, in 2019, India declared at 649/7, with Cheteshwar Pujara and Rishabh Pant scoring centuries. However, with rain forecasted for days two and three, the conditions might become challenging, potentially affecting the match outcome.

Expert Predictions

Former Indian coach Ravi Shastri believes that India’s bowlers can exploit Australia’s “brittle” top order, especially if they manage to dismiss key players like Usman Khawaja and Marnus Labuschagne early. He emphasizes the importance of India’s aggressive approach and the potential impact of debutant Sam Konstas.

On the other hand, cricket legends Mike Hussey and Michael Vaughan predict a dominant performance from Australia, citing the team’s strong home record and the favorable conditions at venues like the SCG. They highlight the significance of Australia’s experienced batting lineup and the potential challenges for India’s relatively inexperienced batsmen.

Betting Strategies

Given the SCG’s history and the current form of both teams, bettors might consider the following strategies:

• Back India if they bat first: Exploiting the fresh pitch could allow India to post a formidable total, increasing their chances of winning.
• Monitor weather forecasts: With rain predicted, the likelihood of a draw increases. Bettors should stay updated on weather conditions and consider in-play betting options.
• Player-specific bets: Usman Khawaja has an impressive record at the SCG, averaging over 100 in eight matches. Betting on him to be Australia’s top first-innings batsman could be a value play.

Conclusion

The fifth Test at the SCG promises to be a thrilling conclusion to a closely contested series. While Australia holds a slight advantage, India’s resilience and potential lineup changes could make for an exciting contest. Bettors should consider team news, pitch conditions, and weather forecasts when making informed wagers.