The UFC is gearing up for another thrilling matchup as Lone’er Kavanagh takes on Felipe dos Santos in an anticipated flyweight clash at UFC Fight Night on March 22, 2025. With both fighters bringing unique skills and compelling stories to the Octagon, this bout has all the makings of a fan favorite. Whether you’re an MMA enthusiast eager to see how this fight unfolds or a bettor looking for an edge, this article dives deep into the prediction, betting tips, analysis, odds, and stats you need to know. Let’s break it all down and see why this fight could be a sleeper hit on the card.
Before we get into the nitty-gritty of predictions and betting, let’s meet the combatants. Understanding their backgrounds and fighting styles is key to making sense of how this matchup might play out.
Lone’er Kavanagh: The Rising Irish Star
Lone’er Kavanagh is a 25-year-old flyweight hailing from England, though his name and fighting spirit carry an undeniable Irish flair. With an undefeated professional record of 7-0, Kavanagh burst onto the UFC scene with a highlight-reel knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024. That first-round finish against An Tuan Ho showcased his explosive striking and earned him a contract with the world’s premier MMA promotion.
Kavanagh’s fighting style is a blend of precision striking and solid grappling fundamentals. Standing at 5’5” with a reach yet to be officially listed by the UFC, he’s compact but powerful, boasting five knockouts in his seven wins. Training with top-tier coaches and fighters, Kavanagh has shown he can adapt and capitalize on opportunities in the cage. His debut at UFC Macau in November 2024 against Jose Ochoa further solidified his potential, as he controlled the fight with sharp striking en route to another victory.
What makes Kavanagh intriguing is his composure under pressure. He’s faced high-stakes moments early in his career and come out on top, suggesting he’s got the mental toughness to match his physical gifts. As he steps into this fight against Felipe dos Santos, he’ll look to extend his perfect record to 8-0 and climb the flyweight ranks.
Felipe dos Santos: The Brazilian Phenom
On the other side of the cage stands Felipe dos Santos, a 23-year-old Brazilian with a 7-1 record. Known as “Lipe Detona,” dos Santos is a product of the famed Chute Boxe academy, a gym renowned for producing aggressive, finish-oriented fighters like Charles Oliveira. His pro career kicked off with seven straight wins, including a mix of knockouts and submissions, before he stepped into the UFC on short notice in 2023.
Dos Santos’ UFC debut at UFC 293 against Manel Kape was a baptism by fire. Replacing an injured Kai Kara-France, he faced a top-10 flyweight and put on a gutsy performance, staggering Kape at times but ultimately losing by decision. Despite the loss, his stock rose thanks to his relentless pace and willingness to trade blows with an elite striker. In his next outing at UFC Mexico City in February 2024, he dropped another close decision to Victor Altamirano, leaving him 0-2 in the UFC but still a prospect to watch.
At 5’7” with a 70-inch reach, dos Santos has a slight size advantage over most flyweights. His style is pure Chute Boxe: aggressive Muay Thai striking paired with a dangerous submission game. He’s a fast starter who loves to push the pace, though his defensive lapses have cost him against more seasoned opponents. Facing Kavanagh, he’ll aim to finally secure that elusive first UFC win.
This matchup pits two hungry prospects against each other, and their contrasting styles promise an exciting clash. Let’s analyze how their skills might mesh in the Octagon.
Striking: Kavanagh’s Precision vs. dos Santos’ Aggression
Kavanagh’s striking is his bread and butter. He’s a technical fighter who picks his shots carefully, relying on speed and power to land devastating blows. His knockout on the Contender Series—a perfectly timed counter—showed he can end fights in an instant when he finds an opening. Against Ochoa, he displayed crisp boxing and smart footwork, keeping his opponent at bay while racking up damage.
Dos Santos, meanwhile, is a pressure fighter. He comes forward with long punches, flying knees, and elbows, aiming to overwhelm his foes from the opening bell. His Muay Thai base gives him a variety of weapons, but his high guard can leave him vulnerable to body shots or counters—something Kape exploited in their fight. Against Kavanagh, dos Santos will likely try to close the distance and force a chaotic brawl.
Edge: Kavanagh. His ability to stay composed and counter could frustrate dos Santos’ forward pressure, especially if he targets the body to slow the Brazilian down.
Grappling: A Hidden Strength for Both
While both fighters shine on the feet, their grappling skills could play a pivotal role. Kavanagh has shown competence in wrestling, with a submission win on his record and solid takedown defense in his UFC debut. He’s not a grappling specialist, but he’s versatile enough to hold his own if the fight hits the mat.
Dos Santos, trained at Chute Boxe, brings a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt to the table. Two of his seven wins have come by submission, and he’s dangerous off his back or in scrambles. His loss to Kape highlighted his willingness to hunt for submissions, even if it didn’t pay off. If he can drag Kavanagh to the ground, he might catch the Irishman in a choke or armlock.
Edge: Dos Santos. His submission threat gives him a slight advantage, though Kavanagh’s takedown defense could neutralize this area.
Cardio and Fight IQ
Both fighters are young and in their physical primes, so stamina shouldn’t be a major issue. Kavanagh has fought mostly short fights due to his finishing ability, but his debut went into later rounds without signs of fading. Dos Santos, known for his high pace, has gone the distance in both UFC losses, showing he can maintain output over 15 minutes—though his early aggression sometimes leaves him open late.
Fight IQ might be the decider. Kavanagh’s ability to adapt mid-fight and stick to a game plan contrasts with dos Santos’ all-out style, which can lack nuance against savvier opponents.
Edge: Kavanagh. His tactical approach could outsmart dos Santos’ relentless but sometimes reckless attack.
As of March 10, 2025, the opening odds for this fight, per posts on X, list Lone’er Kavanagh as the favorite at -300, with Felipe dos Santos as the underdog at +250. Here’s what that means for bettors:
These odds reflect Kavanagh’s unbeaten record, recent UFC win, and technical edge, while dos Santos’ 0-2 UFC start and tougher opposition temper expectations. However, odds can shift as fight night nears, so keep an eye on line movement.
Let’s look at some key stats to inform our prediction and betting tips. Note that UFC-specific stats for Kavanagh are limited to one fight, while dos Santos has two outings to draw from.
Lone’er Kavanagh:
Felipe dos Santos:
Kavanagh’s finish rate stands out, while dos Santos’ UFC numbers show he’s active but struggles to convert aggression into wins against top competition.
After breaking down their skills, stats, and odds, here’s my prediction for Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Felipe dos Santos.
Kavanagh enters as the favorite for a reason. His technical striking and fight IQ give him the tools to weather dos Santos’ early storm and pick him apart as the fight progresses. I expect dos Santos to come out swinging, looking to overwhelm Kavanagh with volume and pressure. However, Kavanagh’s counterstriking and movement should allow him to avoid big damage and land cleaner shots.
If dos Santos can’t secure a takedown and submission early, his chances diminish. Kavanagh’s takedown defense looked solid in his debut, and he’s unlikely to let the Brazilian dictate the fight on the ground. As the rounds tick by, dos Santos’ aggressive style might leave openings for Kavanagh to exploit, potentially leading to a late stoppage.
Final Prediction: Lone’er Kavanagh wins by TKO in Round 2. His precision and composure should shine through, handing dos Santos his third straight UFC loss.
For bettors, this fight offers several intriguing options. Here are my top betting tips based on the analysis:
Always shop around for the best odds at sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, or Bet365, as lines can vary closer to fight night.
Beyond the betting and predictions, this bout carries weight for both fighters’ careers. For Kavanagh, a second UFC win solidifies him as a rising star in the flyweight division, potentially earning him a ranked opponent next. For dos Santos, it’s a must-win situation—another loss could jeopardize his UFC future, despite his obvious talent.
The flyweight division is stacked with names like Alexandre Pantoja, Brandon Royval, and Manel Kape at the top. A strong showing here could propel either fighter closer to that elite level. Plus, with the UFC always looking for exciting prospects, a highlight finish could land them a bonus and some extra spotlight.
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Felipe dos Santos might not be the main event, but it’s got all the ingredients for a memorable scrap. Kavanagh’s technical mastery meets dos Santos’ relentless aggression in a classic striker vs. striker showdown. Whether you’re watching for the love of MMA or betting to make a buck, this fight promises action.
So, mark your calendars for March 22, 2025, and tune into UFC Fight Night. Will Kavanagh keep his perfect record intact, or will dos Santos finally break through? Let me know your predictions in the comments—I’d love to hear what you think! And if you’re placing a bet, good luck—may your picks be as sharp as Kavanagh’s right hand.
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