Liverpool vs. PSG Prediction, Betting Tips

The Champions League Round of 16 is heating up, and all eyes are on the second leg showdown between Liverpool and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) set for March 11, 2025, at Anfield. With Liverpool clutching a slender 1-0 advantage from the first leg at Parc des Princes, this clash promises to be a blockbuster. Whether you’re a die-hard football fan or a savvy bettor looking for an edge, this article dives deep into the Liverpool vs. PSG prediction, offering expert betting tips, detailed analysis, betting odds, and key stats to help you make informed decisions. Let’s break it all down and see what’s in store for this thrilling encounter!

A Quick Recap: The First Leg Drama

Before we jump into predictions and tips, let’s set the stage. On March 5, 2025, Liverpool pulled off a gritty 1-0 victory in Paris. It wasn’t pretty—PSG dominated possession, racked up 27 shots, and created 1.78 expected goals (xG), but Liverpool’s goalkeeper Alisson stood tall with nine saves, a club record in the Champions League since 2003-04. Then, in the 87th minute, Harvey Elliott popped up with a rare moment of magic, scoring with just Liverpool’s second shot of the game. It was a classic case of clinical finishing trumping dominance, and it’s given the Reds a precious lead to defend at home.

Now, PSG must come to Anfield and score at least once to force extra time—or twice to win outright in 90 minutes. Liverpool, meanwhile, will look to capitalize on their fortress-like home form and attacking firepower. So, what can we expect in this second leg? Let’s dive into the prediction, betting tips, and stats that could shape the outcome.

Prediction

Predicting a match like this is no easy task—both teams are European heavyweights in scintillating form. Liverpool have been the standout side in the Premier League and topped the Champions League league phase with a near-perfect record (7 wins, 1 loss). PSG, meanwhile, have roared back from a shaky start in the competition, crushing Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the playoff round and riding a 10-game winning streak across all competitions until that first-leg loss.

Given the stakes, here’s our Liverpool vs. PSG prediction: Liverpool to win 2-1 on the night, advancing 3-1 on aggregate. Why? Anfield is a cauldron where Liverpool rarely falter in Europe—think back to their perfect record in this season’s Champions League home games (4 wins, 1 goal conceded). PSG’s attacking flair, led by Ousmane Dembélé and Bradley Barcola, will likely find the net, but Liverpool’s counter-attacking prowess, spearheaded by Mohamed Salah, should seal the deal. Expect goals, drama, and a narrow Reds victory.

Key Stats

Stats don’t lie, and they’re a goldmine for anyone crafting a Liverpool vs. PSG prediction or placing a bet. Here’s a breakdown of the numbers that matter:

Liverpool Stats

• Home Dominance: Liverpool have won all four of their Champions League home games this season, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 1.
• Salah’s Magic: Mohamed Salah has 30 goals and 22 assists in 39 games across all competitions in 2024-25. In the Champions League, five of his seven goal involvements have come at Anfield.
• Defensive Steel: The Reds have kept clean sheets against Bologna, Bayer Leverkusen, and Real Madrid at home in Europe this season.
• Recent Form: Liverpool have lost just one of their last 10 matches across all competitions, with nine of their last 10 Anfield games producing over 2.5 goals.

PSG Stats

• Attacking Firepower: PSG averaged 3.6 goals per game during their 10-match winning streak before the first leg. They’ve scored in three consecutive Champions League away games.
• Dembélé’s Surge: Ousmane Dembélé has 26 goals and six assists in 33 appearances this season, including six goals in eight Champions League games.
• Road Resilience: After losing their first two away games in the Champions League this season, PSG have won their last three, including a 3-0 thrashing of Brest.
• First-Leg Frustration: PSG’s 27 shots and 1.78 xG in the first leg yielded nothing, highlighting a rare finishing lapse.

Head-to-Head History

This will be the sixth meeting between the two sides. Liverpool lead the head-to-head 3-2, with the first leg tipping the scales in their favor. Back in 2018-19, Liverpool won 3-2 at Anfield, while PSG took a 2-1 victory in Paris during the group stage. Historically, these clashes produce goals—expect more of the same.

Betting Tips

Now, let’s get to the good stuff—betting tips for Liverpool vs. PSG. Based on the stats, form, and first-leg dynamics, here are our top picks to maximize your chances of a payout:

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes (Odds: 1.65)

• Why? PSG’s attacking trio of Dembélé, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and Bradley Barcola is too potent to be shut out twice in a row, especially with their backs against the wall. Meanwhile, Liverpool have scored in all four of their Champions League home games this season. This is a banker bet with solid value.

Mohamed Salah to Score Anytime (Odds: 2.20)

• Why? Salah is in Ballon d’Or form, with 30 goals already this season. He thrives at Anfield, and PSG’s high defensive line could leave gaps for him to exploit on the counter. He’s netted in two of Liverpool’s last three Champions League games—back him to strike again.

Over 2.5 Goals (Odds: 1.80)

• Why? Nine of Liverpool’s last 10 Anfield matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and PSG’s recent games have been goal-fests (15 goals in their last three home fixtures alone). With PSG needing to chase the game, this could turn into a shootout.

Ousmane Dembélé to Have Over 0.5 Shots on Target (Odds: 1.90)

• Why? Dembélé averages 4.9 shots per game in the Champions League and has been PSG’s main man since Kylian Mbappé’s departure. He’ll be desperate to make amends after the first leg—expect him to test Alisson.

Liverpool to Win and Over 1.5 Goals (Odds: 2.50)

• Why? This combines Liverpool’s home strength with the likelihood of a high-scoring game. PSG’s need to attack could play into Liverpool’s hands, setting up a classic Reds victory with goals aplenty.

Betting Odds

Here’s a snapshot of the latest betting odds for Liverpool vs. PSG (as of March 9, 2025, subject to change):

• Liverpool to Win: 2.35 (Ladbrokes)
• PSG to Win: 2.35 (bet365)
• Draw: 3.60 (William Hill)
• Liverpool to Qualify: 1.53 (bet365)
• PSG to Qualify: 2.63 (Unibet)
• Over 2.5 Goals: 1.80 (Paddy Power)
• Both Teams to Score: 1.65 (TonyBet)

The odds reflect a tight contest, with Liverpool slight favorites at home but PSG given a decent shot at an upset. The qualification odds heavily favor Liverpool, thanks to their first-leg lead and Anfield advantage.

Analysis: What Will Decide the Game?

Liverpool’s Strengths

• Anfield Factor: The crowd will be electric, and Liverpool’s record at home in Europe is intimidating. PSG haven’t faced an atmosphere like this in their recent run.
• Counter-Attacking Threat: With Salah, Luis Díaz, and Cody Gakpo (expected back from injury), Liverpool can punish PSG’s high line in transition.
• Defensive Resilience: Virgil van Dijk and Alisson form a brick wall—PSG will need something special to breach it twice.

PSG’s Strengths

• Attacking Depth: Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, and Barcola are a nightmare for any defense. If they click, they could overwhelm Liverpool’s backline.
• Midfield Control: Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, and João Neves can dictate tempo and create chances, as they did in the first leg.
• Desperation: Trailing 1-0, PSG have nothing to lose—they’ll throw everything at Liverpool, which could lead to a breakthrough.

Key Battles

• Salah vs. Nuno Mendes: PSG’s left-back will have his hands full with Salah’s pace and trickery.
• Dembélé vs. Van Dijk: Can Dembélé’s flair outfox Liverpool’s defensive rock?
• Midfield Duel: Liverpool’s Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister will need to disrupt PSG’s slick passing game.

Tactical Breakdown

Liverpool (4-2-3-1)

• Predicted XI: Alisson; Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Andy Robertson; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Dominik Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Díaz.
• Tactics: Arne Slot will likely stick with his possession-based approach, but expect quick transitions to exploit PSG’s attacking intent. Salah and Díaz will stretch the play, while Gakpo adds physicality up top.

PSG (4-3-3)

• Predicted XI: Gianluigi Donnarumma; Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Lucas Beraldo, Nuno Mendes; Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves; Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Barcola.
• Tactics: Luis Enrique will push for an early goal, using width from Kvaratskhelia and Barcola to open up Liverpool. Dembélé’s central role will aim to exploit gaps behind the midfield.

Why This Match Matters

For Liverpool, a win keeps their treble dreams alive—Premier League, League Cup, and Champions League are all in play under Slot’s sensational first season. For PSG, it’s about shedding their tag as European nearly-men. A victory at Anfield would be a statement of intent and a step toward that elusive Champions League trophy.

Final Thoughts

This Liverpool vs. PSG prediction isn’t just about stats or odds—it’s about momentum, belief, and that intangible Anfield magic. PSG will fight tooth and nail, and their attack could easily nick a goal. But Liverpool’s home record, Salah’s brilliance, and Slot’s tactical nous should see them through. Our call? Liverpool 2-1 PSG, advancing 3-1 on aggregate.

So, whether you’re watching as a fan or betting on the action, this match has all the ingredients for a classic. Use our betting tips, weigh the odds, and let the stats guide you—but most importantly, enjoy the ride. What’s your prediction? Drop it in the comments below and let’s get the conversation going!