Atlanta United vs. New York Red Bulls Prediction, Betting Tips

Soccer fans, buckle up! The Major League Soccer (MLS) season is heating up, and this weekend’s clash between Atlanta United and the New York Red Bulls promises to be a thrilling encounter. Set for March 8, 2025, at the iconic Mercedes-Benz Stadium, this matchup pits two Eastern Conference contenders against each other in what could be a defining moment early in the campaign. Whether you’re a die-hard supporter or a savvy bettor looking for an edge, this article dives deep into predictions, betting tips, statistical analysis, and the latest odds to help you navigate this exciting fixture.

In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down everything you need to know: team form, key players, head-to-head history, betting odds, and expert tips. By the end, you’ll have a clear picture of what to expect and how to make informed betting decisions. Let’s kick things off!

A Quick Look at the Teams

Atlanta United: The Five Stripes’ Early Season Journey

Atlanta United kicked off the 2025 MLS season with a mixed bag of results. After a thrilling 3-2 victory over Montreal in their opener, they stumbled with a 2-0 defeat to Charlotte FC. Sitting seventh in the Eastern Conference with three points from two games as of March 7, 2025, the Five Stripes are eager to bounce back at home. Known for their attacking flair and passionate fanbase, Atlanta thrives at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where the atmosphere often feels like a 12th man on the pitch.

Under manager Rob Valentino, Atlanta has shown glimpses of brilliance but also moments of vulnerability. Their recent loss exposed defensive frailties, something they’ll need to address against a Red Bulls side that’s found its rhythm. With star players like Alexey Miranchuk and Saba Lobjanidze in the mix, Atlanta has the firepower to turn games around—but consistency is key.

New York Red Bulls: A Strong Start in 2025

The Red Bulls, meanwhile, are riding high after a convincing 2-0 win over Nashville SC in their last outing. This victory marked their first triumph of the season, lifting spirits and signaling their intent in the Eastern Conference. Known for their high-pressing, energetic style under head coach Sandro Schwarz, New York is a tough nut to crack—especially when their key players are firing on all cylinders.

Lewis Morgan, with his knack for finding the net, remains a standout threat, while Emil Forsberg’s creativity adds a layer of unpredictability. However, injuries have plagued their squad early in 2025, and they’ll need to overcome these hurdles to maintain momentum on the road against a motivated Atlanta side.

Head-to-Head History

The Atlanta United vs. New York Red Bulls rivalry has produced some memorable moments over the years. Historically, the Red Bulls have had the upper hand, winning 10 of their last 17 matches across all competitions, compared to Atlanta’s two victories. Draws have been frequent too, with four of the last 10 encounters ending level.

Their most recent clash in September 2024 finished 2-2 at Red Bull Arena, a game that showcased both teams’ attacking prowess and defensive lapses. Atlanta’s lone win in this fixture over the past five years came in April 2023 (2-1), a rare bright spot in an otherwise challenging record against New York. For bettors, this history suggests a tight contest, with goals often on the menu—15 have been scored across their last six matches, averaging 2.5 per game.

Current Form

Atlanta United’s Form

• Last 5 Games (All Competitions): W-L-D-W-L
• Goals Scored: 8 in their last 5 league games
• Goals Conceded: 9 in their last 5 league games

Atlanta’s form has been a rollercoaster. Their opening win against Montreal was a statement of intent, with three goals highlighting their attacking potential. However, the 2-0 loss to Charlotte exposed defensive weaknesses, as they struggled to contain a clinical opponent despite 46% possession and seven shots on target in their last home game (a 2-1 loss to CF Montreal in October 2024). At home, though, Atlanta remains a force—unbeaten in four of their last five MLS matches at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

New York Red Bulls’ Form

• Last 5 Games (All Competitions): W-D-L-W-D
• Goals Scored: 10 in their last 5 league games
• Goals Conceded: 8 in their last 5 league games

The Red Bulls are finding their groove. Their 4-1 demolition of Toronto FC in October 2024 showcased their attacking depth, with four different players scoring. The 2-0 win over Nashville last week was a more controlled display, with a clean sheet boosting confidence. On the road, New York has been solid, covering the +0.25 Asian Handicap in four of their last five away games—a stat that makes them a tempting bet against Atlanta.

Key Players to Watch

Atlanta United

• Saba Lobjanidze (Forward): With eight goals in the 2024 season, Lobjanidze is Atlanta’s leading scorer and a creative force. His pace and finishing could trouble New York’s backline.
• Alexey Miranchuk (Midfielder): The Russian playmaker’s vision and passing ability unlock defenses. He’ll be crucial in linking midfield to attack.
• Brad Guzan (Goalkeeper): A veteran presence, Guzan’s shot-stopping will be tested against New York’s relentless press.

Injury Concerns: Brooks Lennon (dislocated shoulder), Pedro Amador (hamstring), and Ronald Hernandez (hip) are doubtful, potentially weakening Atlanta’s defensive structure.

New York Red Bulls

• Lewis Morgan (Forward): With 13 goals in 2024, Morgan is in scintillating form. His movement and finishing make him a constant threat.
• Emil Forsberg (Midfielder): The Swedish star’s experience and flair can turn games. Expect him to dictate play from the No. 10 role.
• John Tolkin (Defender): A rising star, Tolkin’s overlapping runs and defensive tenacity bolster New York’s flanks.

Injury Woes: The Red Bulls are grappling with a lengthy injury list, including Adri Mehmeti, Kyle Duncan, Marcelo Morales, Roald Mitchell, Ronald Donkar, Serge Ngoma, and Wiktor Bogacz. Depth will be tested.

Statistical Breakdown

Let’s crunch the numbers to uncover trends that could shape this match:

Goals Per Game (2024 Season):

• Atlanta United: 1.6 goals scored, 1.5 conceded
• New York Red Bulls: 1.7 goals scored, 1.4 conceded

Both Teams to Score (BTTS):

• Atlanta: Yes in 9 of their last 10 games
• New York: Yes in 7 of their last 10 games

Over 2.5 Goals:

• Atlanta: 8 of their last 10 games
• New York: 7 of their last 10 games

Home/Away Splits:

• Atlanta at home: 60% win rate in 2024
• New York away: 45% win rate in 2024, but unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 against Atlanta

These stats scream one thing: goals. Both teams love to attack, and their defenses have shown cracks. Bettors eyeing totals markets should take note.

Betting Odds: Where’s the Value?

Here’s a snapshot of the latest betting odds as of March 7, 2025 (subject to change):

Moneyline (1X2):

• Atlanta United: +125 (44% implied probability)
• Draw: +210
• New York Red Bulls: +200 (33% implied probability)

Over/Under 2.5 Goals:

• Over: -108
• Under: -112

Both Teams to Score (BTTS):

• Yes: -200
• No: +150

Asian Handicap:

• Atlanta -0.25: +100
• New York +0.25: -105

Source: Odds aggregated from top sportsbooks like Bet365, FanDuel, and BetMGM.

Atlanta’s home advantage makes them slight favorites, but the Red Bulls’ historical edge and recent form keep this close. The BTTS market at -200 looks juicy given both teams’ scoring trends, while Over 2.5 Goals at -108 aligns with their high-octane styles.

Betting Tips

Ready to place your bets? Here are our top tips, backed by analysis:

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes (-200)

• Why: Atlanta have scored in each of their last four MLS games, while New York have netted in 70% of their last 10. Defensively, both sides have been leaky—Atlanta conceded in 5 of their last 6, and New York in 6 of their last 6. This screams goals at both ends.

Over 2.5 Goals (-108)

• Why: Eight of Atlanta’s last 10 games and seven of New York’s last 10 have gone over 2.5 goals. Their head-to-head clashes average 2.5 goals, and with attacking talents like Morgan and Lobjanidze on the pitch, three or more goals feels likely.

New York Red Bulls +0.25 Asian Handicap (-105)

• Why: New York have covered the +0.25 line in 15 of their last 20 games and 4 of their last 5 on the road. They’ve lost just once in their last 12 against Atlanta, making them a solid pick to at least avoid defeat.

Lewis Morgan to Score Anytime (+200)

• Why: Morgan’s 13 goals in 2024 and his recent form (scoring in 3 of his last 5) make him a prime candidate to find the net. Atlanta’s shaky defense could be his playground.

Bonus Tip: Correct Score – Atlanta United 1-2 New York Red Bulls (+600)

• Why: A speculative punt, but New York’s road resilience and Atlanta’s home scoring streak suggest a narrow Red Bulls win. The odds offer big value for the brave.

Tactical Preview

Atlanta will likely lean on their home crowd and possession-based style to dominate the ball. Expect Miranchuk to pull the strings in midfield, feeding Lobjanidze and striker Daniel Rios. However, their injury-hit defense could struggle against New York’s pressing game.

The Red Bulls, true to form, will press high and look to exploit transitions. Morgan and Forsberg will be key in breaking lines, while Tolkin’s runs down the left could stretch Atlanta’s backline. If New York can weather an early storm, their counter-attacking threat might just tip the scales.

Why This Match Matters

Beyond the three points, this game carries weight for both teams’ early-season aspirations. For Atlanta, a win reasserts their status as Eastern Conference contenders and boosts morale after a rocky start. For New York, it’s a chance to build momentum and prove they can compete with the big boys on the road. Bragging rights in this budding rivalry only sweeten the deal.

How to Watch

Catch the action live on Apple TV, the home of MLS in 2025. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EST on March 8. For bettors, top sportsbooks like Bet365 and FanDuel offer live streaming with a funded account or recent bet—perfect for in-play wagering as the drama unfolds.

Final Prediction

After weighing form, stats, and intangibles, we’re backing the New York Red Bulls to edge this one. Atlanta’s home advantage is real, but their defensive injuries and New York’s historical dominance tilt the scales. Expect a fast-paced, goal-filled affair, with the Red Bulls’ clinical finishing making the difference.

Conclusion

The Atlanta United vs. New York Red Bulls clash is shaping up to be a must-watch for MLS fans and bettors alike. With attacking talent on both sides, a rich rivalry, and plenty of betting value, this game has it all. Whether you’re backing BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals, or a Red Bulls upset, use our analysis to guide your picks—and enjoy the ride!