Alaves vs Getafe Prediction and Betting Tips

As the La Liga season progresses, Deportivo Alavés is set to face Getafe CF on February 9, 2025, at the Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain. This encounter is crucial for both teams as they aim to improve their standings in the league.

Current Standings and Recent Form

Deportivo Alavés currently finds themselves in the relegation zone, occupying 18th place with 21 points accumulated from 5 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses. Their recent form has been concerning, with a 1-1 draw against Celta de Vigo followed by a narrow 1-0 defeat to FC Barcelona. Notably, Alavés has struggled defensively, conceding goals in their last ten matches.

Getafe CF, on the other hand, sits in 14th place, three points clear of Alavés. Their season has been a mix of results, but they come into this match with a slight edge, having secured a 2-0 victory over Alavés in their previous encounter on September 28, 2024. In that match, Mauro Arambarri and Luis Milla were the goal scorers.

Head-to-Head Analysis

Historically, matches between Alavés and Getafe have been evenly contested. In their last 15 meetings, both teams have secured 4 wins each, with 7 matches ending in draws. The average number of goals scored in these encounters is 1.9 per match, indicating typically low-scoring affairs.

Team Performance and Statistics

Alavés has faced challenges both offensively and defensively this season. They have an expected goals (xG) tally of 23.2, while their expected goals against (xGA) stands at 27.1. The team has managed to score 25 goals but has conceded 34, resulting in a goal difference of -9. Their defense has kept only 3 clean sheets, translating to a 13.6% clean sheet rate.

Getafe’s performance has been slightly more stable. They have an xG of 21.2 and have scored 17 goals this season. Defensively, they have a higher save rate of 73.0% compared to Alavés’s 60.9%. Getafe also boasts a better clean sheet percentage at 31.8%.

Key Players to Watch

For Alavés, goalkeeper Jesús Owono will be pivotal. Despite the team’s defensive struggles, Owono has made 24 saves in 9 starts, though his save percentage stands at 61.5%. His performance will be crucial in keeping Getafe’s attackers at bay.

Getafe’s goalkeeper, David Soria, brings experience between the posts. Over his career, he has accumulated 639 saves in 255 starts, with a commendable save percentage of 69.8% and 87 clean sheets. His presence provides stability to Getafe’s defense.

Betting Odds and Predictions

The betting markets suggest a closely contested match. Alavés is favored to win with odds at +135, while Getafe’s odds are at +270, and a draw is priced at +190. The implied probabilities indicate a 38.7% chance of an Alavés victory, a 30.6% chance for Getafe, and a 30.7% likelihood of a draw.

Given the historical data and current form, a low-scoring match seems probable. The “under 2.5 goals” market has been a consistent outcome in eight of the last nine games between these two teams. Therefore, betting on under 2.5 goals could be a prudent choice for this fixture.

Conclusion

The upcoming match between Deportivo Alavés and Getafe CF is poised to be a tightly contested battle, with both teams eager to secure valuable points. Alavés will aim to leverage their home advantage to climb out of the relegation zone, while Getafe seeks to distance themselves further from the bottom three. Considering the teams’ recent performances and historical encounters, a low-scoring draw appears to be a plausible outcome.